What Does iRobot’s Bankruptcy Mean for the Future of U.S. Robots? + 2026 Predictions! | EP 169

Summary

This three-part episode begins with an interview with iRobot co-founder Colin Angle, who explains how the iconic Roomba maker ended up in bankruptcy — now being taken over by Chinese creditor Pyia Robotics. Colin argues iRobot was “roadkill” in the government’s broader antitrust campaign against Amazon, which had offered to buy the company for $1.7 billion in 2022. He admits some strategic mistakes, particularly being late to add wet mopping, but fiercely defends the camera-over-LIDAR approach and warns that the US risks ceding the consumer robotics industry to China.

The second segment features the hosts’ annual predictions for 2026. Casey predicts social media bans for under-16s will spread globally, Democrats will win midterms on anti-AI sentiment, and OpenAI will retire Sora. Kevin predicts an AI company will solve a Millennium Prize math problem, an AI-generated work will be nominated for a major entertainment award, and Apple will replace Tim Cook with an outside CEO (with dark horse candidates including Jony Ive, Brian Chesky, and Mira Murati). Both agree the AI bubble won’t pop catastrophically but that SaaS companies may start to struggle.

The episode closes with the annual Hard Forking Christmas carol, a tech-themed rendition of “The Twelve Days of Christmas” featuring items like “eight Mecca Hitlers,” “five bum bum creams,” and “a bot trained on all our IP.”

Highlights

”iRobot Was Roadkill”

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“I believe iRobot had nothing to do with the blocking of the deal with the FTC. I believe iRobot was — this is Colin’s personal view — we were roadkill.” — Colin Angle, 13:30

”We Got Wet Mopping Wrong”

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“Honestly, we got wet mopping wrong. We built our first mopping robot two years after Roomba and we felt like creating an independent mopping solution was the right strategy. But the customer didn’t go for it. It was never going to work as an independent product. I deserve arrows for mopping.” — Colin Angle, 9:40

”Casey’s Spicy Apple CEO Prediction”

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“My low confidence prediction for 2026 is that Apple will replace Tim Cook after his retirement with an outside CEO. Dark horse candidates: Jony Ive, Brian Chesky, or Mira Murati.” — Kevin Roose, 48:00

”Casey Goes Three for Three on 2025 Predictions”

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“X and XAI merged in March in an all-stock deal. If you listened to our predictions episode last year and placed a large bet on the Casey Newton low confidence prediction, you made some money.” — Casey Newton, 27:00

”An AI Company Will Solve a Millennium Prize Problem”

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“My high confidence prediction for 2026 is that an AI company will solve one of the Millennium Prize problems — these seven hardest unsolved problems in mathematics with a million-dollar prize each.” — Kevin Roose, 31:00

Key Points

• iRobot Bankruptcy (0:39) - iRobot filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and will be taken over by Chinese company Pyia Robotics, its largest creditor
• Amazon Acquisition Blocked (1:30) - Amazon’s $1.7 billion offer in 2022 was blocked by antitrust regulators in the US and EU
• Chinese Competition (4:00) - Roborock entered the US market in 2018; Chinese government subsidized competitors while iRobot was effectively locked out of the Chinese market
• LIDAR vs. Camera Debate (7:00) - Colin defends camera-based navigation as the Tesla strategy, arguing LIDAR is a dead-end technology
• Mopping Mistake (9:40) - iRobot built a separate mopping robot (Scooba) instead of integrating mopping into Roomba, which customers wanted
• Roadkill Claim (13:30) - Colin believes the FTC blocked the deal to oppose Amazon’s growth, not because of actual antitrust concerns about iRobot’s 50% US market share
• Warning for Humanoids (18:00) - Colin warns the US risks repeating the mistake with humanoid robots, urging protection of American innovation
• 2025 Predictions Scorecard (22:59) - Casey went 3/3 (AI culture war, X-XAI merger, Waymo mainstream); Kevin scored about 1.5/3
• Casey’s 2026 High: Under-16 Bans (24:00) - Five more countries will enact under-16 social media bans similar to Australia’s
• Kevin’s 2026 High: Millennium Prize (31:00) - An AI company will solve one of the seven Millennium Prize math problems
• Casey’s 2026 Medium: Anti-AI Democrats (34:00) - Three Democrats will flip seats by running on anti-AI sentiment
• Kevin’s 2026 Medium: AI Entertainment Award (37:00) - An AI-generated work will be nominated for an Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, or Tony
• Casey’s 2026 Low: Sora Retired (42:00) - OpenAI will retire Sora app, pivoting video generation into ChatGPT
• Kevin’s 2026 Low: Outside Apple CEO (48:00) - Apple replaces Tim Cook with an outside CEO; dark horses include Jony Ive, Brian Chesky, or Mira Murati
• AI Bubble Prediction (50:00) - No catastrophic pop; SaaS companies may struggle as businesses build their own tools; San Francisco housing market about to surge with upcoming IPOs

Mentions

Companies

• iRobot (0:39) - Filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy after 33+ years
• Amazon (1:30) - $1.7B acquisition offer blocked by antitrust regulators
• Pyia Robotics (2:00) - Chinese company taking over iRobot as largest creditor
• Roborock (4:00) - Chinese competitor that entered the US market in 2018
• Apple (48:00) - Kevin predicts Tim Cook will retire and be replaced by an outside CEO
• OpenAI (42:00) - Casey predicts they’ll retire Sora
• Anthropic (50:00) - Reportedly planning an IPO for 2026
• Nvidia (50:00) - Major AI infrastructure company
• Salesforce (51:00) - Example of SaaS companies that may struggle as AI lets businesses build their own tools
• DeepMind (31:00) - Reportedly working on solving Navier-Stokes equations
• Thinking Machines Lab (49:00) - Mira Murati’s AI startup, one of Kevin’s dark horse Apple CEO candidates
• Disney (43:00) - Recently struck a deal with OpenAI for Sora access

Products & Technologies

• Roomba (0:39) - Iconic robot vacuum, first released in 2002
• Scooba (9:40) - iRobot’s separate mopping robot that customers rejected
• LIDAR (7:00) - Navigation technology used by Chinese competitors; Colin calls it a dead-end
• Aurora (7:00) - Camera-based navigation, compared to Tesla’s approach
• Sora (42:00) - OpenAI’s text-to-video generator that Casey predicts will be retired
• Millennium Prize Problems (31:00) - Seven unsolved math problems with $1M prize each

People

• Colin Angle (0:39) - iRobot co-founder and 33-year CEO, stepped down in 2024
• Lina Khan (13:30) - Former FTC Commissioner; Colin believes she blocked the Amazon deal for anti-big-tech reasons
• Tim Cook (48:00) - Apple CEO Kevin predicts will retire in 2026
• Jony Ive (48:30) - Kevin’s first dark horse Apple CEO candidate
• Brian Chesky (49:00) - Airbnb CEO, Kevin’s second dark horse candidate; known Apple fanboy
• Mira Murati (49:00) - Former OpenAI exec, Kevin’s third dark horse candidate via Thinking Machines Lab acquisition
• John Ternus (48:00) - Apple SVP of hardware engineering, reported frontrunner for Tim Cook’s replacement
• Bernie Sanders (35:00) - Called for a moratorium on new data center construction

Surprising Quotes

“Does your autonomous driving vehicle have LIDAR on it? No. Why? Because it is a dead-end technology which gives you no situational awareness.” — Colin Angle, 7:30

“I do not believe there is any economic rationale which would say that the FTC or the European Commission had any evidence that the consumer was going to be negatively harmed by the acquisition of iRobot by Amazon.” — Colin Angle, 13:00

“If I had like raised money at a huge valuation to just kind of provide a UI wrapper around somebody else’s large language model, I would feel nervous right now.” — Casey Newton, 51:00

“2026 is the last year to buy a house in San Francisco because this coming year, we will see the IPOs of at least one major AI company.” — Kevin Roose, 51:30

“Can Ezra Klein do that? I don’t think so.” — Casey Newton, 55:00, after their Christmas carol performance

Transcript

0:00 I’m Kevin Roose, a tech columnist at the New York Times. I’m Casey Newton from Platformer and this is Hard Fork. This week, iRobot co-creator Colin Angle joins us to talk about why the iconic vacuum company went bankrupt. Then, our 2026 tech predictions, and finally, we’re going caroling. A Hard Forking Christmas makes its annual return.

0:39 A legendary American company is entering an exciting new chapter. That’s the bankruptcy chapter. On Sunday, iRobot, maker of the Roomba, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy after finding itself outcompeted by a bunch of Chinese fast-following companies. iRobot was started in 1990. The first Roomba came out several years later and it has been synonymous with the category of household robot vacuum.

1:30 In 2022, Amazon made an offer to buy the company for $1.7 billion. But antitrust regulators in the US and the EU stepped in and said they’d attempt to block it. In 2024, they officially walked away and the company now is bankrupt. Now iRobot will be owned by Chinese company Pyia Robotics, its largest creditor and a competing manufacturer.

4:00 Colin explains how Chinese fast followers had access to a protected marketplace. China decided this was a market of interest and ensured Chinese companies were advantaged to succeed. The Chinese government provided direct subsidies to competitors.

7:00 On the LIDAR vs. camera debate, Colin is entertainingly dismissive: “Does your autonomous driving vehicle have LIDAR? No. Why? Because it is a dead-end technology which gives you no situational awareness.” He was playing the Tesla card, putting every penny of cost against better visual understanding.

9:40 Colin admits they got wet mopping wrong. They built Scooba as a separate robot, believing it would give the best customer benefit. But the customer didn’t want a separate product — they wanted mopping as an incremental feature in their vacuum robot. They reacted late and took damage.

13:30 On why the FTC blocked the Amazon deal: Colin says iRobot spent tremendous resources over 18 months making the facts clear. “There was nothing unsaid.” He believes iRobot was roadkill in a broader anti-Amazon campaign, not the target itself. iRobot’s European market share was 12% and declining — “the definition of a vibrant, dynamic marketplace.”

18:00 Colin warns about the implications for the humanoid robotics industry. Billions have been invested in American companies. “Are we going to protect and catalyze American companies to continue to lead? Let’s not screw it up. Let’s treat this as the golden goose.”

22:59 2025 predictions scorecard. Casey went 3 for 3: AI culture war began (high confidence), X merged with XAI in March (low confidence), and Waymo went mainstream. Kevin scored about 1.5/3: the Trump memecoin only reached $15B vs. predicted $100B, Waymo arguably went mainstream, and OpenAI did not declare AGI.

31:00 Kevin’s high confidence: an AI company will solve a Millennium Prize problem. These are seven of the hardest unsolved math problems, each carrying a million-dollar prize. DeepMind is reportedly working on the Navier-Stokes equations.

34:00 Casey’s medium confidence: Democrats win midterms on anti-AI sentiment. Bernie Sanders called for a moratorium on data center construction. NIMBY movements against data centers are powerful political tools. Resolution criteria: 3 Democrats flip seats espousing anti-AI sentiment.

42:00 Casey’s low confidence: OpenAI retires Sora. The app generated controversy over copyrighted IP, has declining downloads, and is a distraction during their “code red” moment. He predicts video generation will fold into ChatGPT instead.

48:00 Kevin’s low confidence: Apple replaces Tim Cook with an outside CEO. The Financial Times reported Apple stepping up succession planning. Kevin sees Apple as stagnant, coasting on Steve Jobs-era laurels. Dark horse candidates: Jony Ive (return to design roots), Brian Chesky (Apple fanboy, studied Jobs), or Mira Murati (via acquiring Thinking Machines Lab).

50:00 Both predict the AI bubble won’t catastrophically pop in 2026. Frontier labs will make tens of billions more in revenue. SaaS companies may struggle as businesses build their own tools. Kevin predicts 2026 is the last year to buy a house in San Francisco due to upcoming IPOs from Anthropic, OpenAI, SpaceX, and Stripe.

52:37 The annual Hard Forking Christmas carol: a tech-themed “Twelve Days of Christmas” featuring twelve bubbles, eleven chimpanzinis, ten signal war chats, nine meta reorgs, eight Mecca Hitlers, seven White House meme coins, six Roblox scandals, five bum bum creams, four Humane Pins, three code reds, two robot pants, and a bot trained on all our IP.